If the global emissions continue as it is then it would hit ‘public health’ of middle income and low income countries and worst hit would be China followed by India.
As per a latest computer modelling study published in The Lancet (March 2), India will witness 1.36 lakh deaths by 2050 attributable to agriculturally mediated changes caused due to climate change. And, China will register over 2.48 lakh deaths due to climate change meanwhile; globally over a billion will be killed due to climate change by 2050.
The study is being tagged first of its kind which has tried to identify wider impact of climate change. In earlier research works much focus was given on impact of climate change on agriculture and food security whereas, minimal focus was given on the impact of climate change on public health.
The researchers used an agricultural economic model fitted with data on emission trajectories, socio-economic pathways, and possible climate responses to evaluate the effects on global food production, trade, and consumption for 2050.
The research leader, Dr. Marco Springmann is from the Oxford Programe on the Future of Food at the University of Oxford in England.
His study published in The Lancet, read, “The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% in global food availability, 4·0% in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529?000 climate-related deaths worldwide, representing a 28% reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia.”
The experts are of view that health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts.
On the contrary to death data, the study has also indicated that adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways can reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on stringency adopted to stop climate change.